- guardian.co.uk, Sunday April 2 2000 23.37 BST
Amid suggestions that fewer than one in five voters will support the government's official candidate, Labour sources believe Dobson is set to be humiliated by Ken Livingstone in the mayoral contest on 4 May.
Philip Gould, Labour's principle polling adviser for the past 15 years, indicated last week that the Dobson campaign would now have to concentrate on damage limitation. He is expected to win 20 per cent of the vote, compared with 50 per cent for Livingstone.
Dobson has still not been told when Tony Blair will find time to make a public appearance to support him, raising speculation that the Prime Minister does not want to be associated with Dobson's impending failure. But the former health secretary's aides hope it will happen in the next two weeks.
In a bid to lessen the scale of Dobson's defeat, Labour will tomorrow begin an advertising campaign designed to highlight his reputation as a straight talker. Devised by one the advertising industry's leading creative directors, Trevor Beattie, of the TBWA agency, it will feature the slogan 'Frank and to the point'.
However, the prospect of a heavy defeat is already concentrating Labour's minds on a strategy for coping with Livingstone if he becomes London's elected Mayor.
One minister told The Observer: 'I don't foresee any problem. In the election, Ken will be out canvassing for us, because basically he wants to get back - and good.'
But others say that Livingstone can never be forgiven for breaking his pledge not to run against an official party candidate.
Livingstone's expulsion from the party will become official tomorrow when nominations for the mayoral election close. The MP for Brent East has been suspended since he said he would run as an independent, and will be deemed to have expelled himself by entering an election against an official party candidate. Any party member who has signed his nomination papers will also be expelled.
Yesterday Livingstone's campaign headquarters confirmed that his nomination papers have already been lodged, but refused to say who had signed them.
Livingstone earlier told The Observer: 'I'm going to ensure that there are no more than three or four expulsions. Party members who turn up offering to help are being turned away. I want to ensure that they are still in the Labour Party because I want them to take me back. And they will, because I'm an engaging little worm.'
Last week, Dobson was invited to Number 10 for a morale-boosting social gathering with the candidates for the Greater London Assembly and party workers.
The evening was also meant to counter complaints that the party's big names have been reluctant to involve themselves publicly in the Dobson campaign. Both Blair and the Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, spoke at the event.
Blair told the gathering he was 'still optimistic' that a Dobson victory was possible 'if we get down to it'. He also lamented short memories which have caused Londoners to forget the record of the Greater London Council (GLC) under Livingstone's leadership in the early Eighties. He stressed how easy it would be 'to slip back into all that'.
However, Livingstone's campaign will receive a big financial boost tomorrow evening when works by a collection of the best known artists working in Britain go under the hammer.
Tracey Emin, Damien Hirst, Sarah Lucas, Jake and Dinos Chapman, Howard Hodgkin, Sir Anthony Caro, Antony Gormley, Gillian Ayres, Maggi Hambling and Cornelia Parker have all donated works for the private sale, which will be held at London gallery Gimpel Fils.
Bidding for the Hirst spin painting, Beautiful Butterbomb, is expected to top £40,000. Tracey Emin has donated Exploration of the Soul , a hard-cover book with original drawings and autobiographical photographs. This is expected to go for around £1,000, while Sarah Lucas' collage of tabloid newspaper pages, Shine On , is likely to reach £3,000.
'We have had a fantastic reaction right across the generations of artists,' said Peter Kennard, who has co-ordinated the show.
'I have known Ken since the days of the GLC,' he said. 'He has always supported the cultural base of the city and there were was an amazing period of artistic activity during his time at County Hall.'
