- guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 7 March 2000 18.12 GMT
The survey's results show that voters in London were electrified yesterday by Mr Livingstone's announcement that he is to stand as an independent candidate, even though it will mean his expulsion from the Labour party. The poll, taken after his 10am declaration, gives him the support of 68% of London voters.
Mr Dobson, who polls only 13%, appears to face an impossible task in stopping Mr Livingstone despite the fact that Labour, from Tony Blair downwards, last night expressed the belief that his overwhelming lead can be eroded before the May 4 election.
The Guardian/ICM survey shows that Mr Livingstone commands the support of 75% of all Labour voters in London. The clear implication is that if Tony Blair goes to war against Mr Livingstone, he will be fighting not only his party activists in the capital but also the overwhelming mass of the party's voters in London.
The poll shows that Mr Livingstone's cross-party popularity is quite unprecedented. Some 70% of all Liberal Democrat voters in the capital say they intend to vote for him but even more astonishing is the result that 48% of Conservative voters are prepared to back the man once vilified as Red Ken. This is an even bigger share of the Tory vote in the capital than the 40% of Conservative voters who say they will support the official candidate, Steve Norris, and indicates that Tories are preparing to vote tactically on a massive scale.
But when the ICM pollsters asked Mr Livingstone's supporters why they were backing him, the decisive factor proved to be his popularity rather than the perception that he had been unfairly treated or a desire to "kick Tony Blair". Some 72% simply believe he is the best candidate.
After a day of ferocious official Labour attacks on the former Greater London council leader, he was formally suspended from party membership and had the whip withdrawn for behaviour "grossly detrimental to the interests of the party". Expulsion will follow the moment he files his nomination papers, which have to be in before April 4.
As he was branded a "traitor" and a "liar" by Mr Dobson and his supporters, the prime minister predicted the Brent East MP would be "disastrous" for London and the Tory leader, William Hague, called him a "far-left extremist who would be lethal for London".
Mr Livingstone said he had been "forced to choose between the party I love and upholding the democratic rights of Londoners. I have therefore concluded that defence of London's right to govern itself requires that I stand as an independent candidate for London mayor on May 4".
The "blatant ballot-rigging" that gave Mr Dobson the Labour nomination, while winning an estimated 22,275 votes to Mr Livingstone's 74,646, and the "massive support among Londoners that I should stand" had been decisive, despite earlier undertakings not to stand against Labour's official candidate.
Emphasising the "broad church", cross-party appeal he planned for his campaign, Mr Livingstone said he would be highlighting his demand for the Tube to stay in public hands.
Londoners would have to weigh his broken undertakings against the way Labour had conducted its mayoral selection and "choose which is the greatest crime".
His opponents predicted that his support had peaked, before last night's Guardian poll, and Mr Livingstone's campaign organisers said a fall in Mr Livingstone's opinion poll support from the 51% level in last month's ICM poll for the Evening Standard had been built into their calculations.
At the launch of his own campaign, overshadowed by Mr Livingstone's announcement, Mr Dobson sought to isolate Mr Livingstone on the left, accusing him of being "soft on crime", "anti-police" and "anti-business", with "ruinous policies" and "chat-show politics" that would saddle Londoners with debt and higher taxes.
Mr Livingstone countered that he had been "consistent in his support for the police" and said he would fight to reverse the cuts in spending on the Metropolitan police by both Labour and Tory government's and to increase the force from 26,000 to 28,000.
•ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged over 18 by telephone yesterday. Interviews were conducted across London and the data has been weighted to the profile of all London adults.
